Forecasting merket penetration

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Major L. reccomend Forecasting merket penetration

The factors that drive forecasts of total-market size differ markedly from those that determine a particular product's market share or product-category share.

Therefore, the demand for studies to forecast the market penetration of HFCVs has increased to establish successful commercialization strategies for HFCVs.

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Secondly, the forecasting performance of attraction models is compared to those of linear and multiplicative market share models not only if competitors' actions.

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Description:Current car technologies will not solve upcoming challenges of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in road transport. Projections of the market penetration by alternative drive train technologies are controversial regarding both forecast market shares and applied scientific methods. Accepting this latter challenge, we provide a so far missing overview of methods applied in this field and give some recommendations for further work. Our focus is to classify the applied methods into a convenient pattern and to analyse models from the recent scientific literature which consider the electrification of light-duty vehicles. We differentiate the following bottom-up approaches: Econometric models with disaggregated data such as discrete choice , and agent-based simulation models.

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